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The USDA published their latest 2020/21 WASDE crop forecasts this week and here are the highlights:

  • World corn production is forecast at a record high with the largest increases in the U.S., Brazil, Ukraine, Mexico and Canada.
  • U.S.  corn crop is projected at a record 16.0 billion bushels, a 17% increase on 19/20 estimates.
  • Feed and residual demand is expected to increase optimistically 6% to 6 billion bushels, and Ethanol use is expected to increase 5% to 5.2 billion bushels from a reduced COVID-19 affected 2019/20 useage.
  • Exports are forecast to rise an optimistic 21% to 2.1 billion bushels.
  • However, – the main news is a forecast increase in ending stocks of U.S. Corn of 1.2 billion bushels or 58% to 3.3 billion bushels.  If realised this will be the highest ending stocks in 32 years.
  • Stocks to use are forecast at a 27 year high at 22.4%.
  • Average season corn prices are estimated at $3.20/ bushel.

You can read full report here.