The USDA has published its latest outlook which sees world wheat production increase by a sharp 5.7 mmt plus a slight increase in opening stocks.  India production has increased by 4.9 mmt and Australia is up 2.0 mmt – both based on government statistics.  Turkey and China are both up by 1.0 mmt and these are partly offset by a reduction of 2.0 mmt in Europe and 1.5 mmt for Ukraine – both reflecting dry conditions.  With increased supplies, and global demand remaining the same, world ending stocks are increased by 5.97 mmt to a record high of 316.1 mmt.  China and India account for 51% and 10% of the the ending stocks respectively.

Course grains outlook is for larger production, increased use and lower overall carry out stocks.  Brazil corn production is raised based on an increased area.  Ending stocks for 2020/21 are lowered for China, Argentina, South Africa, and Paraguay and more than offset increases for Brazil and India. 

U.S. Corn outlook is little changed from last month with fractional increases in opening and closing stocks but production at a very high 15,995 mb remaining the same.  2019/ 20 Corn used for ethanol is lowered reflecting a slower than expected rebound in ethanol production.  With supply slightly increased and demand the same, ending stocks are up very slightly to 3323 million bushels.  Season average farm prices are unchanged at $3.20/ bushel.

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